Real Estate

Morgan Stanley commercial real estate report predicts steep price drop

In February, a PIMCO-owned office landlord defaulted on an adjustable rate mortgage on seven office buildings in California, New York and New Jersey when monthly payments rose due to high interest rates.

Brookfield, the largest office owner in downtown Los Angeles, that month chose to default on loans on two buildings rather than refinance the debt due to weak demand for office space.

They are a bellwether for what is likely to come, as more than half of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will be up for refinancing in the next couple of years, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Even if current rates stay where they are, new lending rates are likely to be 3.5 to 4.5 percentage points higher than they are for many of CRE’s existing mortgages,” wrote Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett, in a recent report.

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