On its surface, the use of weight loss drugs may seem like it has little to do with the demand for office space, shopping malls and apartment buildings. But Jefferies analyst Jonathan Petersen begs to differ. He speculated that a more fit population would have a host of different habits that could ripple through the economy and eventually be felt by the real estate industry — benefiting some pockets, while pressuring others. “While an immediate rebalance of your portfolio on this trend would likely be premature, we provide predictions on how GLP-1 drugs may transform Real Estate over the next decade,” wrote Petersen in a note to clients Monday. A new class of weight loss drugs known as glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists has given people who struggle with obesity fresh hope that they can shed pounds and possibly ward off other chronic health conditions like Type 2 diabetes and heart disease. Use of these drugs, which include Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro, is still small but analysts predict it will grow in the coming years due to the large percentage of people who can benefit from these therapies. SPG YTD mountain Simon shares have fallen 6% year to date. Petersen suggests the fallout might begin with a pickup in foot traffic at malls as patients on medication shop for new wardrobes to fit their smaller frames. That would help mall operators such as Simon Property , Federal Realty Investment Trust and Macerich . But restaurants could lose out as consumers eat less rich food, a blow to companies such as NNN REIT that own a lot of restaurant properties in their portfolio, Petersen said. NNN YTD mountain NNN REIT shares have fallen more than 22%. He goes on to speculate that a thinner populace might be more social, and look for apartment buildings with more shared spaces and amenities like pools. If that vision comes to pass, it could boost apartment operators such as Equity Residential , Avalonbay Communities and Apartment Income REIT , among others. PEAK YTD mountain Healthpeak shares are down 26% since January and hit a 52-week low Tuesday. Over the long term, the use of these drugs will boost patient well-being, and Petersen expects this could mean fewer doctor visits and longer lives, trends that could boost senior housing operators like Welltower , but pressure operators of medical office space such as Healthpeak . Healthpeak shares hit a 52-week low on Tuesday, while Welltower shares shed more than 2%. Welltower, which operates in the U.S., Canada and U.K., is up nearly 24% year to date. Healthpeak shares are down more than 26% during the same period. Petersen isn’t the first analyst to take a look at the far-reaching implications of GLP-1 medications. Morgan Stanley predicted a reckoning for food and beverage companies as patients on these drugs eat fewer calories. And medical device stocks don’t need to wait to see the knock-on effects. Their stocks have already been hammered by investors who are predicting fewer people will need insulin pumps, CPAP machines for sleep apnea and bariatric surgery. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
How the weight loss boom could affect the real estate market